Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion Atlantic | Pacific

000
AXNT20 KNHC 070552
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO 
03N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
03N13W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W AND WESTWARD ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 
49W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N 
BETWEEN 17W-29W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH AXIS ALONG 29N95W TO 25N90W THAT IS 
GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 
86W-94W. WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE WESTERN 
GULF THE PAST FEW DAYS BECAME DIFFUSE AND HAS NOW DISSIPATED... 
NORTHEASTERLY WIND NOW DOMINATES OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS 
EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE SE 
CONUS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A REINFORCING HIGH 
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN AND 
CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 
THURSDAY INCREASING E-NE WINDS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
GULF N OF 23N...WITH A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINING 
OVER THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN GULF...SURFACE 
TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE OF THE NE FLORIDA COAST IN THE 
SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA 
TO 26N82W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N84W AND INTO A BROAD LOW TO 
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. 
MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA 
PENINSULA S OF 28N AND OVER THE SE GULF WATERS FROM 23N-28N E OF 
85W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO ATLC WATERS E OF 
80W. THIS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AND 
CLEAR THE GULF BASIN BY WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING 
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SE CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY 
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AS A BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED BETWEEN 40W-90W. THIS IS RESULTING IN 
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE BASIN AS EASTERLY TRADES 
PERSIST WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 KT. THE ONLY SURFACE 
FEATURE LOCATED WITHIN THE REGION IS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING 
SOUTHWARD FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 
23N84W TO 19N84W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 
14N-20N BETWEEN 83W-88W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN 
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC BASIN S OF 
32N W OF 40W. HOWEVER...A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS 
FROM 35N73W TO 30N77W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED 
FROM 33N77W TO 29N79W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 
26N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 68W IS UNDER 
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS 
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 25N. FARTHER EAST OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLC...A NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
32N51W AND CONTINUES W-SW ALONG 30N56W TO 29N66W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE 
AZORES NEAR 40N17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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HUFFMAN