Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion Atlantic | Pacific

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070955 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 7 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N83W TO 03N88W TO 
04N100W TO 04N110W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N130W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 99W AND 105W. 

...DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 24N129W TO 20N140W. SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE VERY STRONG TO NEAR 
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT SWEEPS W 
TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY 
TODAY ON BOTH SIDES OF THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE IS PRESENT SE OF THE COLD FRONT. PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA AND LOWER PRES ALONG 10N IS SUPPORTING
15-20 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 08N-11N W OF 100W. HIGH PRES BUILDING 
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY.

ANOTHER DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM CROSSING NW OF THE REGION WILL 
INCREASE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WED EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL 
CREATE ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WHICH WILL MOVE INTO 
THE AREA BY WED WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING NEAR 19 FT OVER THE 
FAR NW PART OF THE AREA BY WED NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES 
S-SW WINDS WILL APPROACH 35 KT WED AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THU 
IN EXTREME NW PART OF FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO WAIT ANOTHER 
MODEL RUN OR TWO FOR BETTER CONSENSUS BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS TO 
ISSUE A GALE WARNING TO SUPPLEMENT THE OPC AND WFO HNL FCSTS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS 
CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
THE EAST PACIFIC. STRONG N WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS IS CREATING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE TONIGHT...BUT 
REMAIN VERY STRONG AT 25-30 KT THROUGH WED NIGHT. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADE WINDS IN SW CARIBBEAN WILL FUNNEL 
THROUGH NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. DIURNAL FORCING OF 
WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU.

$$
MUNDELL