FXUS61 KLWX 070124
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
824 PM EST MON FEB 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LTST SFC ANALY REVEALS A DIFFUSE AREA OF SFC HIPRES ACRS THE MID
ALTC...SERN CONUS...AND LWR-MID MS VLY. HWVR...WATER VAPOR AND
SATPIX REVEAL A S/WV EMBEDDED W/IN MEAN LYR FLOW...TREKKING ACRS
WVA ATTM. PRVS GDNC RUNS SUGGESTED THERE WUD BE SOME PCPN ASSOCD
W/ THIS SYSTM. TDA...ALMOST ALL GDNC DRY. THE HRRR IS THE SOLE MDL
SUGGESTING A LTL QPF PSBL...BUT EVEN THAT DRIES UP AS IT CROSSES
THE APPLCHNS TWD THE CENTRL SHEN VLY.

RNK 00Z RAOB SATD UP THRU H7...BUT ITS DRY ABV THAT LYR. PWAT
0.41 IN. LWX RAOB EVEN DRIER THAN THAT...PWAT A MERE 0.23 IN.
THINK WE/RE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MEASUREABLE PCPN TNGT. IF
ANYTHING FALLS /AND THATS QSTNBL ATTM/...IT WUD BE
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES. WL BACK OFF THE POPS...BUT ATTEMPT TO TRACK
CLDS ACRS CWFA IN ASSOC W/ THE VORT. 

CURRENT TEMPS/FCST MIN-T SEEM TO BE IN LINE W/ LTST LAMP OFFERING.
WL MAKE NO TEMP ADJUSTMENTS ATTM. 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACROSS THE E-CNTRL CONUS BRINGS NWLY FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES
TO THE START OF TUESDAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ENTERING THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. MILD DAY WITH DOWNSLOPING
FLOW...MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 50S NORTH...MID TO UPR 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT LOOKS LK THERES GOING TO BE SOME CHG TO THE PATTERN IN THE WK
AHD...BUT LTL IN THE WAY OF SNOW IS FORESEEN. PRIOR TO GETTING TO
THE PATTERN CHG WELL HV A SHORT WV TO CONTEND W/ LATE TUE NGT AND
WED...W/ THE ACCENT ON WED. THIS LOOKS TO BE A FAST MOVER...AND
COLD AIR WL BE AT A MINIMUM. THERES EVEN A QUSTN AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WL BE AVBL E OF THE MTNS. WHATEVER SNOW OCCURS E OF THE
MTNS IT WOULD PSBLY BE 1 ARND SUNRISE...OR IF THE ECM IS CORRECT
LATER..AND 2 LGT. E OF THE MTNS WED TEMPS XPCTD TO CLIMB INTO THE
M40S...M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS. UPSLOPE COMPONENT PSBL ALONG THE WRN
RIDGES. HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS IN SHORT SUPPLY AND COME TO AN END
QUICKLY. FOR THE FAR W WL INCRS POPS TO LKLY AND FCST ARND 1.

MID CONTINENTAL HIGH PRES WL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLC FOR THU AND
FRI. TEMPS ARND AVG  - HIGHS IN THE U40S/LOWS IN THE U20S/L30S.

UPR RDG BUILDS UP THE W CST INTO THE NWT DURG THIS WK. THIS IS
CAUSING SOME OF THE VERY COLD AIR WHICH HAS BEEN BLDG UP OVR AK
DURG THE PAST SVRL WKS TO DROP INTO QUEBEC FRI...AND IN A MUCH
MODERATED FORM THE MID ATLC THIS WKND. HIGHS SAT RANGING FM U30S
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LN TO LM 40S IN THE CENTRAL SHN VLLY.

GFS DOES SHOW LOW PRES OVR FL ON SAT. AT THIS TIME THE LOW IS
PROGGED TO BE EITHER TOO FAR S OF E TO AFFECT MID ATLC. LOWS IN
THE LM20S SAT NGT TEENS IN THE HIGHLANDS. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
U30/L40S. 

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. 
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE TONIGHT THEN THERE WAS LAST 
NIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG FORMATION NEAR AREA TERMINALS. WIND 
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES 
TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO 10KT WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY NOON. 
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER WITH 
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. 

A FAST MOVG SHORT WV WL CROSS THE MID ATLC RGN WED...PSBLY BRING
R/S E OF THE MTNS AND MVFR CIGS. HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN WED NGT
THRU FRI. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE RGN NEXT WKND.

.MARINE...
SWLY FLOW CHANNELING 10 TO 15 KT...BEFORE BECOMING NWLY LATE
TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAK DISTURBANCE. WE/RE CLOSE TO SCA ATTM...BUT
DONT THINK WE/LL ACTUALLY GET THERE...AND THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY IS CLOSING SOON ANYWAY. 

NLY FLOW TUESDAY 10 TO 15 KT AHD OF BLDG HIPRES.

A SHORT WV WL CROSS THE RGN ON WED. HIGH PRES BDLG INTO THE WATERS
WL PSBLY LEAD TO SHORT CRFT ADVSRY LATE WED NGT AND THU. COLD AIR
BLDG INTO THE WATERS COULD CREATE SCA CONDS SAT.

.CLIMATE...
A CONTINUED LOOK AT THIS WINTERS TEMPS SO FAR 12/1-2/5...

SITE    AVG TEMP RANK

DCA 42.6 5TH WARMEST SINCE 1871

BWI 40.0 12TH WARMEST SINCE 1870 

IAD39.33RD WARMEST SINCE 1971

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...JACKSON
LONG TERM...WOODY
AVIATION...CJL/WOODY
MARINE...HTS/WOODY
CLIMATE...WOODY