000
FXUS61 KLWX 031841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE EARL CURRENTLY WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND ONCE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE COAST.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HURRICANE EARL ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE MID ATLC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL BRUSH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE
BEFORE GETTING WRAPPED AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY
DRAGGING A POTENT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO RVR VLY...NOW
CROSSING INTO WESTERN WV. WEAK-MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND GUSTY PRE AND POST-FRONTAL WINDS ON THEIR
WAY FROM THE WEST. THIS QUICK-MOVING FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CNTRL APLCNS AND THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING -
IN ONLY A FEW HRS.

TILL THEN...THE UPPER CIRRUS SPIRALING ABOUT THE HURRICANE MAKING
AN IMPRESSIVE SHIELD ACROSS THE MID ATLC STATES TODAY. THE SHIELD
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ON THE WESTERN EDGE AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
OFF THE COAST LATER THIS EVE. TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE U80S-
NEAR 90 IN MANY AREAS WEST OF I-95 W/ THE CIRRUS SHIELD/S
DISSIPATION.

MUCH OF THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE UPON ARRIVAL TO
THE HIGHER RIDGELINES...AS THE FRONT GETS STRETCHED OUT W/ THE
MAIN FORCING WEAKENING AND HEADING NEWD. POPS FOR THIS EVENING ARE
LIMITED TO THE WRN ZONES...W/ LITTLE OF THIS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
SHENANDOAH VLY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...PICKING UP WNWLY WINDS AS IT NEARS THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND CHESAPEAKE BAY. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE BACK INTO
THE 5-10MPH RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...BUT THE MAIN EFFECT
FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRIER AIR THAT WILL BE A FACTOR
IN THE AREA/S WX THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS - U60S ACROSS THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND DOWN INTO THE 50S W OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORTUNATELY FOR THE MID ATLC - WE/LL SEE HIGH TEMPS AT LEAST
10-15 DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND DRIER /MUCH LESS
HUMID/. THIS WILL BE A TASTE OF FALL...WHICH OF COURSE ALSO COMES
W/ A DRY WNWLY WIND AND SATURDAY WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXIT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT...WILL BE THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SERN CANADA. THIS
FEATURE WILL MIX-DOWN GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC INTO THE 20-30MPH
RANGE FROM LATE MORNING TILL EARLY EVE. HIGHS WILL ONLY PEAK INTO
THE U70S ACROSS THE WEST AND NEAR 80 OVER THE VA/MD PIEDMONT-I-95
CORRIDOR. ELEVATED CONCERNS FOR FIRE WX ANOTHER RESULT OF THIS
GUSTY/DRY DAY. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.

HIPRES WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA SAT NGT AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WITH HIPRES MOVING IN...THE WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME CALM ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. IN A DRY AIRMASS LIKE THE ONE
WE WILL BE IN THIS WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP CLOSE TO THE
DEWPOINT. AS A RESULT...PARTS OF THE CWFA MAY SEE THE LOWEST
READINGS SAT NGT SINCE EARLY JUNE...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEST OF
I-95...50S ALONG AND TO THE EAST. A FEW COLD SPOTS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT MAY BOTTOM INTO THE
UPPER 30S.

PLENTY OF LATE SUMMER SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND ON SUN
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE
RIDGE TOPS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS THAT THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED THE LAST 1-2 WEEKS WILL
PERSIST THRU MOST OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN
FOR ERY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE CENTER OF SFC HIPRES WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MON WHILE THE H8 RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION MON-WED. HIGHS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES COULD
RETURN TUE AND WED.

AN AREA OF LOPRES IS FORECASTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION ON WED...BRINGING
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE LOW WHILE ANY MOISTURE SOURCE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUTOFF FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. THEREFORE...NOT MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA...BRINGING LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN WV PANHANDLE...CENTRAL VA AND CENTRAL MD.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BKN-OVC SHIELD 20-25KFT FROM EXITING HURRICANE EARL STILL OVER THE
MID ATLC BUT SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST AND WILL BE AWAY FROM
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY ON
ITS HEELS...NOW SLIDING INTO WRN WV. THE FRONT WILL BE DRY BUT
CARRY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WELL AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY GUST NEAR 20KT FOR A PERIOD INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS...DISSIPATING TILL MID MORNING SAT. WINDS WILL AGAIN
INCREASE W/ THE PASSAGE OF A POTENT UPPER LOW WELL TO THE NORTH.
WINDS AT THE SFC WILL GUST 20-25KT PERIODICALLY THROUGHOUT THE
AFTN HRS AND AGAIN SUBSIDE CLOSER TO SUNSET SAT EVE.

GUSTY WINDS WILL WEAKEN SAT NGT AS HIPRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIPRES REMAINS OVERHEAD.

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWEST 2 ZONES OF THE MD BAY...AS
EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID ATLC COAST BUT KEEPS
PULLING ITS OUTERMOST RAIN W/ WINDS STILL GUSTING 15-30KT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...W/ A LULL
PERIOD LASTING INTO LATER ON TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HRS...CARRYING SCA CRITERIA GUSTS BACK ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DRIFT
OVER THE REGION ON SAT...BRINGING MORE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS WELL INTO THE EVE HRS.

SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO SAT NGT FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND
THE CHSPK BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND SOUTHWARD. STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL
STILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE
THE WARM WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE
SAT NGT AS HIPRES SETTLES ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH WINDS DROPPING
BELOW 20 KT BY ERY SUN MRNG.

NO MARINE HEADLINES SUN THRU ERY NEXT WEEK WITH HIPRES OVERHEAD.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS ON SATURDAY...RESULTING FROM A
COMBINATION OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN VA/WRN MD AND THE WX
PANHANDLE...GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND DRY DEWPOINTS SAT
AFTN. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE A COUPLE OF HRS AFTER
SUNRISE INTO THE SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH W/ GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WELL
INTO THE AFTN HRS...DISSIPATING BY THE MID-LATE EVE.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ531534-537-539541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
     543.

SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GMS/KLEIN
MARINE...GMS/KLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...GMS